Looking at employment<\/h3>\n

The report found that full-time employment has been strongest in the top four income deciles (and especially in the top two), while growth in total employment was strongest in the top four income deciles and the bottom two.<\/p>\n

What this means, in Tom\u2019s view, is that\u00a0\u201cfull-time jobs have been strongly biased toward the better paid jobs, while growth in all jobs has shown a hollowing out of the occupation distribution with growth at the top and bottom at the expense of the middle. It is clear that the growth in part-time jobs has tended to be in the poorer paying jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Looking at qualifications and qualification creep<\/h3>\n

The report points out that:<\/p>\n

\u201cIn respect of qualifications, the period 2011 to 2021 was one of growth in credentials, particularly in higher degrees and bachelor degrees. The strongest growth was in higher degrees where the proportion of employed persons with a higher degree increased from 5.1% to 9.1%, while the proportion with a bachelor degree increased from 20.8% to 26.3%. Diplomas increased a little while the proportion of employed persons with a certificate III\/IV remained constant (at 19.5%). There are now more people with a degree than with a certificate III\/IV.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the other hand, \u201cthe groups which have seen a decline are those with an \u2018other certificate\u2019 (which includes certificates I and II and those qualifications that fall outside the Australian Qualification framework) and those with no non-school qualification.\u201d<\/p>\n

The worry is that individuals will not get a job commensurate with the qualification(s) they hold, and even some of those with relatively high qualification levels may still be in the lowest income deciles.<\/p>\n

However, when Tom used a shift share analysis, he found important structural changes in the occupation structure that clearly favour those with higher degrees and degrees. It is relatively neutral for those with diplomas and is unfavourable for those with a certificate III\/IV. It is very unfriendly<\/u> to those with no post-school qualification.\u00a0(A shift-share analysis looks at the change over time of an economic variable, such as employment or qualifications, within industries in an economy.)<\/p>\n

The overall lesson that emerges, he suggests (and as we pointed out above), is that \u201cthe labour market has become increasingly unfriendly for persons with a diploma or a certificate III\/IV.\u201d As he points out:<\/p>\n

\u201cFirst, the growth in occupations has not been in those occupations associated with the VET qualifications. Technicians and trades workers are growing much more slowly than the overall labour market. Second, these qualifications are being pushed aside by higher degrees and bachelor degrees and have only maintained their position by pushing out those with no post-school qualifications.\u201d<\/p>\n

Interestingly, all of this seems not to accord with a rhetoric that highlights the real importance of VET as a sector and study destination and pathway.<\/p>\n